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整体略有下降的主要原因是航空贸易增长率较低：各自的指数值下降了 8 点至 62。全球海洋贸易增长率仅下降了 1 点至63 点。关于 GTB的七个组成国家，本季度的情况喜忧参半，存在三重差异：印度是一个贸易增长增长且前景非常高的国家，英国的前景保持不变，所有其他国家的前景略有下降。

　　印度的贸易前景改善了 4 点至83，这是所有指数成分中的指数值。印度的海洋贸易增长增加了十个百分点，推动了这一改善。鉴于英国脱欧谈判的乏味进展以及对“硬脱欧”的猜测加剧，英国维持57 不变和积极的指数值有点令人惊讶。

　　主要是中美之间的全球贸易争端加剧，但这些国家仍处于增长模式，但速度较慢。美国增长前景放缓 5 点至63。中国贸易前景下降 4 点至59。大多数其他构成国的贸易动态也出现减速：韩国——仍然是之前预测的*强劲增长动力之一——其前景下调下降 5 点至69。同样，德国的贸易增长预测下调 6 点至 58。日本的前景下降 3 点至 64。

　　DHL 全球贸易晴雨表于 2018 年 1月推出，是衡量全球贸易现状和未来发展的全新独特早期指标。它基于在人工智能的帮助下的大量物流数据。该指标由全球的物流公司 DHL 和IT 服务提供商埃森哲合作开发。它每年出版四次。下一个发布日期是 11 月 28 日。

The main reason for the overall slight decline is the low growthrate of aviation trade: the respective index values fell by 8points to 62. In contrast, the growth rate of global marine tradedecreased by only 1 point to 63 points. With regard to the sevenconstituent countries of GTB, the situation in this quarter wasmixed, and there were three differences: India is a country with avery high prospect of trade growth at the same time, the outlookfor the United Kingdom remained unchanged, and the outlook for allother countries declined slightly.India's trade outlook improved by4 points to 83, which is the index value of all index components.India's marine trade growth increased by 10 percentage points,promoting this improvement. In view of the tedious progress of theBrexit negotiations and the intensification of speculation about"hard Brexit", it is somewhat surprising that the UK remainsunchanged and positive at 57.

Although the global trade disputes between China and the UnitedStates have intensified, these countries are still in the growthmode, but at a slower pace. US growth prospects slowed by 5 pointsto 63. China's trade prospects fell by 4 points to 59. The tradedynamics of most other constituent countries also slowed down:South Korea - still one of the strongest growth drivers previouslypredicted - its outlook fell by 5 points to 69. Similarly,Germany's trade growth forecast was lowered by 6 points to 58. Theoutlook for Japan fell by 3 points to 64.The DHL Global TradeBarometer, launched in January 2018, is a new and unique earlyindicator to measure the current situation and future developmentof global trade. It is based on a large amount of logistics datawith the help of AI. This indicator is developed by DHL, a globallogistics company, and Accenture, an IT service provider. It ispublished four times a year. The next release date is November28.